04_Quant_plots

Summary of population-based quantifiers needed for countries in sub-Saharan Africa for different ITN distribution scenarios

This file presents a summary in map format of the population-based quantifiers (population multiplied by X%) needed to sustain ITN access at varying target levels. Target levels were set at 70%, 80%, and 90%. Two ITN scenarios are presented here, involving annual continuous distribution through primary schools or community channels.

Scenario 1

This scenario is excluded from this visualization, but involves mass ITN campaigns every three years in combination with routine ITN delivery to pregnant women and infants through antenatal care visits (ANC) and immunization visits for infants (EPI).

Scenario 2

Scenario 2 assesses the quantifiers required for different countries for an ITN strategy that combines ANC and EPI distribution with an annual primary school distribution (or continuous community-level, demand-driven distribution). This scenario requires a mass campaign at minimum 2 years prior to the continuous distribution strategy so that ITN access is already at a high level. The annual distribution is designed to maintain high levels of ITN access.

We’ll plot means and minimum quantifier needed, but clearly means are less useful here (they overestimate the need) so we won’t include those in the paper.

Scenario 2 - min quant achieving 70%

The minimum quantifier for each country that results in maintaining ITN access above 70% target level.

Quantification factor needed to maintain ITN access above 70% for Scenario 2

(No mean plot for target=70, as band is wider - 70-100, and the mean overestimates the quantifier)

Scenario 2 - min quant achieving 80%

Scenario 2 - mean quant achieving 80% (rounded down)

Scenario 2 - min quant achieving 90%

Scenario 2 - mean quant achieving 90% (rounded down)

Scenario 3 - mass campaigns, ANC/EPI, and continuous distribution

Scenario 3 combines routine ANC/EPI distribution with three-yearly mass ITN campaigns, and adds a smaller level of continuous distribution through primary schools or community channels in the years between the mass campaigns, to maintain target levels of ITN access. This scenario requires considerably more ITNs than Scenario 2 but has been shown to provide better reductions of malaria transmission.^Scates et al in press, “Cost-effectiveness of continuous distribution: a simulation study”

Scenario 3 - min quant achieving 70%

(No mean quant for 70-100 band as it overestimates the need, due to the wider band.)

Scenario 3 - min quant achieving 80%

Scenario 3 - mean quant achieving 80% (rounded down)

Scenario 3 - min quant achieving 90%

Scenario 3 - mean quant achieving 90% (rounded down)

Table of Recommended Quantifiers for Scenarios with continuous distribution

Minimum quantifier to sustain ITN access at target level
Country Code	Scenario 2			Scenario 3
	70%	80%	90%	70%	80%	90%
AO	25	30		23	29
BF	19	25		11	17	28
BI	23	29		17	23	26
BJ	26			23	30
CD	22	28		15	21	28
CF	15	24	28	7	10	22
CG	9	12	20	7	7	11
CI	19	29	30	9	14	26
CM	7	10	17	7	7	7
DJ	26			24	21
ER	9	12	20	7	7	10
ET	23	29		17	23	30
GA	7	10	17	7	7	8
GH	17	27	29	8	7	24
GM	21	25		11	16	27
GN	20	26		13	19	30
GQ	7	10	16	7		7
GW	22	28		16	22	29
KE	12	17	27	7	7	15
KM	13	19	28	7	8	16
LR	26			25	22
MG	20	24	30	10	15	27
ML	9	12	21	7	7	7
MR	26			23	30
MW	23	29		17	23	30
MZ	22	28		17	23	30
NE	7	10	17	7	7	7
NG	12	18	27	7	7	15
RW	21	25		11	17	28
SD	9	12	20	7	7	11
SL	21	27		14	20	30
SN	22	28		16	22	30
SO	12	16	26	7	7	14
SS	27			25	22
TD	26			25	22
TG	11	15	25	7	7	13
TZ	13	19	28	7	8	16
UG	20	24	30	10	15	26
ZM	23	29		17	23	30
ZW	9	12	21	7	7	7

Scenario 4 - 3 year mass campaigns

We vary the quantification in Scenario for mass campaigns, from population/1.0 to population/2.0. Standard quantification is population/1.8.

Lowest ITN access between 3-year campaigns for each quantifier
Cty	Population divided by
	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.0
AO	29	27	26	26	24	24	24	23	23	23	23
BF	64	61	58	55	52	51	49	46	45	45	43
BI	43	42	39	38	36	36	35	33	33	32	32
BJ	26	26	24	24	23	23	23	23	21	21	21
CD	52	49	46	45	42	41	41	39	38	36	36
CF	80	76	73	70	68	65	63	61	59	56	55
CG	95	92	89	87	85	84	82	81	79	77	76
CI	70	66	64	61	58	56	54	52	51	49	48
CM	100	96	93	91	89	87	86	84	82	81	80
DJ	24	24	23	23	23	21	21	21	21	21	20
ER	96	93	90	88	86	84	83	81	80	79	77
ET	45	43	41	39	38	36	36	35	33	33	32
GA	99	95	93	90	88	86	85	83	82	81	80
GH	75	71	68	65	63	61	58	56	54	52	51
GM	66	63	61	58	55	52	51	49	48	46	45
GN	59	56	54	51	49	46	45	43	42	41	41
GQ	100	97	94	92	89	88	86	85	83	82	81
GW	49	46	45	42	41	39	38	38	36	35	35
KE	87	84	82	80	78	75	73	71	69	66	65
KM	85	82	80	77	74	72	70	68	65	64	62
LR	24	23	23	21	21	21	21	20	20	20	20
MG	69	64	62	59	56	54	52	51	49	48	46
ML	94	91	89	86	85	83	81	80	78	76	74
MR	26	26	24	24	23	23	23	23	21	21	21
MW	45	43	41	39	38	36	36	35	33	33	32
MZ	46	43	42	41	39	38	36	35	35	33	33
NE	100	96	93	91	89	87	86	84	82	81	80
NG	86	84	81	80	77	74	72	70	68	66	64
RW	64	62	58	55	54	51	49	48	46	45	43
SD	95	92	89	87	85	84	82	81	79	77	76
SL	56	54	51	48	46	45	43	42	41	39	39
SN	48	45	42	41	39	38	36	36	35	33	33
SO	88	86	84	81	80	77	75	73	71	69	68
SS	23	23	21	21	21	21	20	20	20	20	20
TD	24	23	23	21	21	21	21	20	20	20	20
TG	89	87	84	82	80	79	76	74	72	70	69
TZ	85	82	80	78	75	72	70	68	66	64	63
UG	69	65	62	59	56	55	52	51	49	48	46
ZM	45	42	41	39	38	36	35	35	33	32	32
ZW	94	91	88	86	84	82	81	80	78	76	74

Scenario 5 - 2 year mass campaigns

Lowest ITN access between 2-year campaigns for each quantifier
Cty	Population divided by
	1.0	1.1	1.2	1.3	1.4	1.5	1.6	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.0
AO	84	81	78	74	71	68	65	63	61	59	56
BF	97	94	91	88	86	84	82	81	79	77	75
BI	90	87	84	82	80	77	75	72	70	68	65
BJ	82	80	76	73	70	66	64	62	59	58	55
CD	93	90	87	85	82	80	78	76	73	71	69
CF	100	100	98	95	92	90	88	86	85	83	82
CG	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	97	95	94
CI	100	97	93	91	88	86	84	82	81	80	78
CM	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	98
DJ	81	79	75	71	69	65	63	61	58	56	54
ER	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	98	96	94
ET	91	88	85	82	80	78	75	73	71	69	66
GA	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	99	97
GH	100	99	95	93	90	88	86	84	82	81	80
GM	99	95	92	89	87	85	83	81	80	78	76
GN	96	92	89	87	85	82	81	79	77	74	72
GQ	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	98
GW	92	89	86	84	81	80	77	75	72	70	68
KE	100	100	100	100	99	96	94	92	90	88	87
KM	100	100	100	100	97	94	92	90	88	87	85
LR	81	77	74	70	68	64	62	59	56	55	54
MG	99	96	92	90	87	86	84	82	80	79	77
ML	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	99	96	95	93
MR	82	80	76	73	70	66	64	62	59	58	55
MW	91	88	85	82	80	78	75	73	71	69	66
MZ	91	88	85	83	81	79	76	73	71	69	66
NE	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	98
NG	100	100	100	100	98	96	93	91	90	88	87
RW	98	94	91	88	86	84	82	81	79	77	75
SD	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	97	95	94
SL	94	91	88	86	84	82	80	78	75	73	71
SN	91	88	85	83	81	79	76	74	71	69	68
SO	100	100	100	100	100	98	95	93	91	90	88
SS	80	77	73	70	66	64	62	59	56	55	52
TD	81	77	74	70	68	64	62	59	56	55	54
TG	100	100	100	100	100	99	96	94	92	90	89
TZ	100	100	100	100	97	95	92	90	89	87	86
UG	100	96	93	90	88	86	84	82	81	79	77
ZM	90	87	85	82	80	78	75	72	70	68	66
ZW	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	98	96	94	93