Summary of population-based quantifiers needed for countries in sub-Saharan Africa for different ITN distribution scenarios

This file presents a summary in map format of the population-based quantifiers (population multiplied by X%) needed to sustain ITN access at varying target levels. Target levels were set at 70%, 80%, and 90%. Two ITN scenarios are presented here, involving annual continuous distribution through primary schools or community channels.

Scenario 1

This scenario is excluded from this visualization, but involves mass ITN campaigns every three years in combination with routine ITN delivery to pregnant women and infants through antenatal care visits (ANC) and immunization visits for infants (EPI).

Scenario 2

Scenario 2 assesses the quantifiers required for different countries for an ITN strategy that combines ANC and EPI distribution with an annual primary school distribution (or continuous community-level, demand-driven distribution). This scenario requires a mass campaign at minimum 2 years prior to the continuous distribution strategy so that ITN access is already at a high level. The annual distribution is designed to maintain high levels of ITN access.

We’ll plot means and minimum quantifier needed, but clearly means are less useful here (they overestimate the need) so we won’t include those in the paper.

Scenario 2 - min quant achieving 70%

The minimum quantifier for each country that results in maintaining ITN access above 70% target level.
Quantification factor needed to maintain ITN access above 70% for Scenario 2

Quantification factor needed to maintain ITN access above 70% for Scenario 2

(No mean plot for target=70, as band is wider - 70-100, and the mean overestimates the quantifier)

Scenario 2 - min quant achieving 80%

Scenario 2 - mean quant achieving 80% (rounded down)

Scenario 2 - min quant achieving 90%

Scenario 2 - mean quant achieving 90% (rounded down)

Scenario 3 - mass campaigns, ANC/EPI, and continuous distribution

Scenario 3 combines routine ANC/EPI distribution with three-yearly mass ITN campaigns, and adds a smaller level of continuous distribution through primary schools or community channels in the years between the mass campaigns, to maintain target levels of ITN access. This scenario requires considerably more ITNs than Scenario 2 but has been shown to provide better reductions of malaria transmission.^Scates et al in press, “Cost-effectiveness of continuous distribution: a simulation study”

Scenario 3 - min quant achieving 70%

(No mean quant for 70-100 band as it overestimates the need, due to the wider band.)

Scenario 3 - min quant achieving 80%

Scenario 3 - mean quant achieving 80% (rounded down)

Scenario 3 - min quant achieving 90%

Scenario 3 - mean quant achieving 90% (rounded down)

Scenario 4 - 3 year mass campaigns

We vary the quantification in Scenario for mass campaigns, from population/1.0 to population/2.0. Standard quantification is population/1.8.

Lowest ITN access between 3-year campaigns for each quantifier
Cty Population divided by
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
AO 29 27 26 26 24 24 24 23 23 23 23
BF 64 61 58 55 52 51 49 46 45 45 43
BI 43 42 39 38 36 36 35 33 33 32 32
BJ 26 26 24 24 23 23 23 23 21 21 21
CD 52 49 46 45 42 41 41 39 38 36 36
CF 80 76 73 70 68 65 63 61 59 56 55
CG 95 92 89 87 85 84 82 81 79 77 76
CI 70 66 64 61 58 56 54 52 51 49 48
CM 100 96 93 91 89 87 86 84 82 81 80
DJ 24 24 23 23 23 21 21 21 21 21 20
ER 96 93 90 88 86 84 83 81 80 79 77
ET 45 43 41 39 38 36 36 35 33 33 32
GA 99 95 93 90 88 86 85 83 82 81 80
GH 75 71 68 65 63 61 58 56 54 52 51
GM 66 63 61 58 55 52 51 49 48 46 45
GN 59 56 54 51 49 46 45 43 42 41 41
GQ 100 97 94 92 89 88 86 85 83 82 81
GW 49 46 45 42 41 39 38 38 36 35 35
KE 87 84 82 80 78 75 73 71 69 66 65
KM 85 82 80 77 74 72 70 68 65 64 62
LR 24 23 23 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20
MG 69 64 62 59 56 54 52 51 49 48 46
ML 94 91 89 86 85 83 81 80 78 76 74
MR 26 26 24 24 23 23 23 23 21 21 21
MW 45 43 41 39 38 36 36 35 33 33 32
MZ 46 43 42 41 39 38 36 35 35 33 33
NE 100 96 93 91 89 87 86 84 82 81 80
NG 86 84 81 80 77 74 72 70 68 66 64
RW 64 62 58 55 54 51 49 48 46 45 43
SD 95 92 89 87 85 84 82 81 79 77 76
SL 56 54 51 48 46 45 43 42 41 39 39
SN 48 45 42 41 39 38 36 36 35 33 33
SO 88 86 84 81 80 77 75 73 71 69 68
SS 23 23 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20
TD 24 23 23 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20
TG 89 87 84 82 80 79 76 74 72 70 69
TZ 85 82 80 78 75 72 70 68 66 64 63
UG 69 65 62 59 56 55 52 51 49 48 46
ZM 45 42 41 39 38 36 35 35 33 32 32
ZW 94 91 88 86 84 82 81 80 78 76 74

Scenario 5 - 2 year mass campaigns

Lowest ITN access between 2-year campaigns for each quantifier
Cty Population divided by
1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
AO 84 81 78 74 71 68 65 63 61 59 56
BF 97 94 91 88 86 84 82 81 79 77 75
BI 90 87 84 82 80 77 75 72 70 68 65
BJ 82 80 76 73 70 66 64 62 59 58 55
CD 93 90 87 85 82 80 78 76 73 71 69
CF 100 100 98 95 92 90 88 86 85 83 82
CG 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 97 95 94
CI 100 97 93 91 88 86 84 82 81 80 78
CM 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 98
DJ 81 79 75 71 69 65 63 61 58 56 54
ER 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 98 96 94
ET 91 88 85 82 80 78 75 73 71 69 66
GA 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 97
GH 100 99 95 93 90 88 86 84 82 81 80
GM 99 95 92 89 87 85 83 81 80 78 76
GN 96 92 89 87 85 82 81 79 77 74 72
GQ 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 98
GW 92 89 86 84 81 80 77 75 72 70 68
KE 100 100 100 100 99 96 94 92 90 88 87
KM 100 100 100 100 97 94 92 90 88 87 85
LR 81 77 74 70 68 64 62 59 56 55 54
MG 99 96 92 90 87 86 84 82 80 79 77
ML 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 96 95 93
MR 82 80 76 73 70 66 64 62 59 58 55
MW 91 88 85 82 80 78 75 73 71 69 66
MZ 91 88 85 83 81 79 76 73 71 69 66
NE 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 98
NG 100 100 100 100 98 96 93 91 90 88 87
RW 98 94 91 88 86 84 82 81 79 77 75
SD 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 97 95 94
SL 94 91 88 86 84 82 80 78 75 73 71
SN 91 88 85 83 81 79 76 74 71 69 68
SO 100 100 100 100 100 98 95 93 91 90 88
SS 80 77 73 70 66 64 62 59 56 55 52
TD 81 77 74 70 68 64 62 59 56 55 54
TG 100 100 100 100 100 99 96 94 92 90 89
TZ 100 100 100 100 97 95 92 90 89 87 86
UG 100 96 93 90 88 86 84 82 81 79 77
ZM 90 87 85 82 80 78 75 72 70 68 66
ZW 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 98 96 94 93