This file presents a summary in map format of the population-based quantifiers (population multiplied by X%) needed to sustain ITN access at varying target levels. Target levels were set at 70%, 80%, and 90%. Two ITN scenarios are presented here, involving annual continuous distribution through primary schools or community channels.
This scenario is excluded from this visualization, but involves mass ITN campaigns every three years in combination with routine ITN delivery to pregnant women and infants through antenatal care visits (ANC) and immunization visits for infants (EPI).
Scenario 2 assesses the quantifiers required for different countries for an ITN strategy that combines ANC and EPI distribution with an annual primary school distribution (or continuous community-level, demand-driven distribution). This scenario requires a mass campaign at minimum 2 years prior to the continuous distribution strategy so that ITN access is already at a high level. The annual distribution is designed to maintain high levels of ITN access.
We’ll plot means and minimum quantifier needed, but clearly means are less useful here (they overestimate the need) so we won’t include those in the paper.
Quantification factor needed to maintain ITN access above 70% for Scenario 2
(No mean plot for target=70, as band is wider - 70-100, and the mean overestimates the quantifier)
Scenario 3 combines routine ANC/EPI distribution with three-yearly mass ITN campaigns, and adds a smaller level of continuous distribution through primary schools or community channels in the years between the mass campaigns, to maintain target levels of ITN access. This scenario requires considerably more ITNs than Scenario 2 but has been shown to provide better reductions of malaria transmission.^Scates et al in press, “Cost-effectiveness of continuous distribution: a simulation study”
(No mean quant for 70-100 band as it overestimates the need, due to the wider band.)
| Minimum quantifier to sustain ITN access at target level | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country Code | Scenario 2 | Scenario 3 | ||||
| 70% | 80% | 90% | 70% | 80% | 90% | |
| AO | 25 | 30 | 23 | 29 | ||
| BF | 19 | 25 | 11 | 17 | 28 | |
| BI | 23 | 29 | 17 | 23 | 26 | |
| BJ | 26 | 23 | 30 | |||
| CD | 22 | 28 | 15 | 21 | 28 | |
| CF | 15 | 24 | 28 | 7 | 10 | 22 |
| CG | 9 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| CI | 19 | 29 | 30 | 9 | 14 | 26 |
| CM | 7 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| DJ | 26 | 24 | 21 | |||
| ER | 9 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| ET | 23 | 29 | 17 | 23 | 30 | |
| GA | 7 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| GH | 17 | 27 | 29 | 8 | 7 | 24 |
| GM | 21 | 25 | 11 | 16 | 27 | |
| GN | 20 | 26 | 13 | 19 | 30 | |
| GQ | 7 | 10 | 16 | 7 | 7 | |
| GW | 22 | 28 | 16 | 22 | 29 | |
| KE | 12 | 17 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| KM | 13 | 19 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 16 |
| LR | 26 | 25 | 22 | |||
| MG | 20 | 24 | 30 | 10 | 15 | 27 |
| ML | 9 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| MR | 26 | 23 | 30 | |||
| MW | 23 | 29 | 17 | 23 | 30 | |
| MZ | 22 | 28 | 17 | 23 | 30 | |
| NE | 7 | 10 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| NG | 12 | 18 | 27 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| RW | 21 | 25 | 11 | 17 | 28 | |
| SD | 9 | 12 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 11 |
| SL | 21 | 27 | 14 | 20 | 30 | |
| SN | 22 | 28 | 16 | 22 | 30 | |
| SO | 12 | 16 | 26 | 7 | 7 | 14 |
| SS | 27 | 25 | 22 | |||
| TD | 26 | 25 | 22 | |||
| TG | 11 | 15 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| TZ | 13 | 19 | 28 | 7 | 8 | 16 |
| UG | 20 | 24 | 30 | 10 | 15 | 26 |
| ZM | 23 | 29 | 17 | 23 | 30 | |
| ZW | 9 | 12 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
We vary the quantification in Scenario for mass campaigns, from population/1.0 to population/2.0. Standard quantification is population/1.8.
| Lowest ITN access between 3-year campaigns for each quantifier | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cty | Population divided by | ||||||||||
| 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |
| AO | 29 | 27 | 26 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| BF | 64 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 52 | 51 | 49 | 46 | 45 | 45 | 43 |
| BI | 43 | 42 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 33 | 32 | 32 |
| BJ | 26 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| CD | 52 | 49 | 46 | 45 | 42 | 41 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 36 |
| CF | 80 | 76 | 73 | 70 | 68 | 65 | 63 | 61 | 59 | 56 | 55 |
| CG | 95 | 92 | 89 | 87 | 85 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 79 | 77 | 76 |
| CI | 70 | 66 | 64 | 61 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 51 | 49 | 48 |
| CM | 100 | 96 | 93 | 91 | 89 | 87 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 80 |
| DJ | 24 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 |
| ER | 96 | 93 | 90 | 88 | 86 | 84 | 83 | 81 | 80 | 79 | 77 |
| ET | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 33 | 32 |
| GA | 99 | 95 | 93 | 90 | 88 | 86 | 85 | 83 | 82 | 81 | 80 |
| GH | 75 | 71 | 68 | 65 | 63 | 61 | 58 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 51 |
| GM | 66 | 63 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 52 | 51 | 49 | 48 | 46 | 45 |
| GN | 59 | 56 | 54 | 51 | 49 | 46 | 45 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 41 |
| GQ | 100 | 97 | 94 | 92 | 89 | 88 | 86 | 85 | 83 | 82 | 81 |
| GW | 49 | 46 | 45 | 42 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 35 |
| KE | 87 | 84 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 66 | 65 |
| KM | 85 | 82 | 80 | 77 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 65 | 64 | 62 |
| LR | 24 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| MG | 69 | 64 | 62 | 59 | 56 | 54 | 52 | 51 | 49 | 48 | 46 |
| ML | 94 | 91 | 89 | 86 | 85 | 83 | 81 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 74 |
| MR | 26 | 26 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| MW | 45 | 43 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 33 | 32 |
| MZ | 46 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 33 | 33 |
| NE | 100 | 96 | 93 | 91 | 89 | 87 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 80 |
| NG | 86 | 84 | 81 | 80 | 77 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 66 | 64 |
| RW | 64 | 62 | 58 | 55 | 54 | 51 | 49 | 48 | 46 | 45 | 43 |
| SD | 95 | 92 | 89 | 87 | 85 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 79 | 77 | 76 |
| SL | 56 | 54 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 45 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 39 | 39 |
| SN | 48 | 45 | 42 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 36 | 35 | 33 | 33 |
| SO | 88 | 86 | 84 | 81 | 80 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 68 |
| SS | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| TD | 24 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| TG | 89 | 87 | 84 | 82 | 80 | 79 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 69 |
| TZ | 85 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 66 | 64 | 63 |
| UG | 69 | 65 | 62 | 59 | 56 | 55 | 52 | 51 | 49 | 48 | 46 |
| ZM | 45 | 42 | 41 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 35 | 33 | 32 | 32 |
| ZW | 94 | 91 | 88 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 74 |
| Lowest ITN access between 2-year campaigns for each quantifier | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cty | Population divided by | ||||||||||
| 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | |
| AO | 84 | 81 | 78 | 74 | 71 | 68 | 65 | 63 | 61 | 59 | 56 |
| BF | 97 | 94 | 91 | 88 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 79 | 77 | 75 |
| BI | 90 | 87 | 84 | 82 | 80 | 77 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 65 |
| BJ | 82 | 80 | 76 | 73 | 70 | 66 | 64 | 62 | 59 | 58 | 55 |
| CD | 93 | 90 | 87 | 85 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 76 | 73 | 71 | 69 |
| CF | 100 | 100 | 98 | 95 | 92 | 90 | 88 | 86 | 85 | 83 | 82 |
| CG | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 97 | 95 | 94 |
| CI | 100 | 97 | 93 | 91 | 88 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 80 | 78 |
| CM | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 |
| DJ | 81 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 69 | 65 | 63 | 61 | 58 | 56 | 54 |
| ER | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 96 | 94 |
| ET | 91 | 88 | 85 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 66 |
| GA | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 99 | 97 |
| GH | 100 | 99 | 95 | 93 | 90 | 88 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 80 |
| GM | 99 | 95 | 92 | 89 | 87 | 85 | 83 | 81 | 80 | 78 | 76 |
| GN | 96 | 92 | 89 | 87 | 85 | 82 | 81 | 79 | 77 | 74 | 72 |
| GQ | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 |
| GW | 92 | 89 | 86 | 84 | 81 | 80 | 77 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 68 |
| KE | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 99 | 96 | 94 | 92 | 90 | 88 | 87 |
| KM | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 97 | 94 | 92 | 90 | 88 | 87 | 85 |
| LR | 81 | 77 | 74 | 70 | 68 | 64 | 62 | 59 | 56 | 55 | 54 |
| MG | 99 | 96 | 92 | 90 | 87 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 80 | 79 | 77 |
| ML | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 99 | 96 | 95 | 93 |
| MR | 82 | 80 | 76 | 73 | 70 | 66 | 64 | 62 | 59 | 58 | 55 |
| MW | 91 | 88 | 85 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 66 |
| MZ | 91 | 88 | 85 | 83 | 81 | 79 | 76 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 66 |
| NE | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 |
| NG | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 96 | 93 | 91 | 90 | 88 | 87 |
| RW | 98 | 94 | 91 | 88 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 79 | 77 | 75 |
| SD | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 97 | 95 | 94 |
| SL | 94 | 91 | 88 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 73 | 71 |
| SN | 91 | 88 | 85 | 83 | 81 | 79 | 76 | 74 | 71 | 69 | 68 |
| SO | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 95 | 93 | 91 | 90 | 88 |
| SS | 80 | 77 | 73 | 70 | 66 | 64 | 62 | 59 | 56 | 55 | 52 |
| TD | 81 | 77 | 74 | 70 | 68 | 64 | 62 | 59 | 56 | 55 | 54 |
| TG | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 99 | 96 | 94 | 92 | 90 | 89 |
| TZ | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 97 | 95 | 92 | 90 | 89 | 87 | 86 |
| UG | 100 | 96 | 93 | 90 | 88 | 86 | 84 | 82 | 81 | 79 | 77 |
| ZM | 90 | 87 | 85 | 82 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 66 |
| ZW | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 96 | 94 | 93 |